Scenario-Planning Method for Cost Estimation Using Morphological Analysis

Early cost estimates are emphasized repeatedly in the initial decision-making process to set a direction for the success of construction projects. Therefore, alternatives need to be examined, and the consequences for the cost should be analyzed carefully. This study proposes a scenario-planning method that uses morphological analysis for the estimation of construction cost. A case study was conducted using public data on 102 apartment buildings from 10 housing complex projects. The results show estimation accuracy of 4.23 to 4.86% and an average stability enhancement of 1.39 to 1.73%. The proposed process can produce adaptable scenarios and evaluate the impact of the scenarios in a complicated decision-making process with limited information provided. Furthermore, this method can provide a contingency plan to cushion against uncertainties.

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