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Improving Project Estimates at Completion through Progress-Based Performance Factors

Author(s): ORCID
ORCID
ORCID
ORCID
Medium: journal article
Language(s): English
Published in: Buildings, , n. 3, v. 14
Page(s): 643
DOI: 10.3390/buildings14030643
Abstract:

From a managerial perspective, project success hinges on estimates at completion as they allow tailoring response actions to cost and schedule overruns. While the literature is moving towards sophisticated approaches, standard methodologies, such as Earned-Value Management (EVM) and Earned Schedule (ES), are barely implemented in certain contexts. Therefore, it is necessary to improve performance forecasting without increasing its difficulty. The objective of this study was twofold. First, to guide modeling and implementing project progress within cost and to schedule Performance Factors (PFs). Second, to test several PFs utilized within EVM and ES formulae to forecast project cost and duration at completion. Progress indicators dynamically adjust the evaluation approach, shifting from neutral to conservative as the project progresses, either physically or temporally. This study compared the performance of the progress-based PFs against EVM and ES standard, combined, and average-based PFs on a dataset of 65 real construction projects, in both cost and duration forecasting. The results show that progress-based PFs provide more accurate, precise, and timely forecasts than other PFs. This study allows practitioners to select one or more of the proposed PFs, or even to develop one, following the guidelines provided, to reflect best their assumptions about the future course of project performance.

Copyright: © 2024 by the authors; licensee MDPI, Basel, Switzerland.
License:

This creative work has been published under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International (CC-BY 4.0) license which allows copying, and redistribution as well as adaptation of the original work provided appropriate credit is given to the original author and the conditions of the license are met.

  • About this
    data sheet
  • Reference-ID
    10773718
  • Published on:
    29/04/2024
  • Last updated on:
    05/06/2024
 
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