Baubegleitende Kostenprognose bei Megaprojekten – am Beispiel Tunnelbau

Total costs and date of completion are the pivotal questions in project business. The task of the management is to provide sound answers and therefore it has to keep up with the prediction at all times. Dealing with mega-projects, the most important focus of project management lies on the quality of the predictions. Because of the billions involved, slight differences between the planned and the actual output bear the risk of loosing big amounts of money. To keep the necessary quality of predictions, the immense data volume has to be managed. This turns out to be more a question of neat systematic, general structure and consistent rules than of computer technology, because hardware and data base software afford appropriate conditions. In case of basic data with little variability or relatively reliable assumptions, approximate approaches are accepted. But whenever the basic data is subject to change, it has to enter the predictions in a more distinguished way. Putting this into practice, in easy cases it is enough to take costs and constructing progress into account. But in case of more complex projects, the technical aspects have to be added. Highly complex are tunneling projects, because in this case even the building material, the rock, is flawed by the fuzzy geological prediction. With the proceeding construction process the knowledge about the rock parameters are getting more specific and have to enter the predictions as improved true values.