Analyse der Diskrepanz von Energiebedarf und -verbrauch bei Energiepässen von Wohngebäuden in Luxemburg - Teil 1: Methode der multiplen linearen Regression

Analysis of energy demand and energy consumption of residential buildings with energy certificate in Luxemburg.

Building owners in Luxemburg are obligated by the Energy Savings Ordinance to complete the Energy Performance Certificate of their domestic buildings with measured values of the real energy consumption, for new buildings three years after moving in. Not unexpectedly systematic and considerable discrepancies between the measured delivered energy consumption for heating and domestic hot water and the corresponding standardized calculated demand appeared.
Over time a considerable database arose, allowing for a quantitative statistical analysis of the well-known reasons for these discrepancies between measured consumption and calculated demand. In this first part of the article the method of multiple linear regression is applied, taking various independent variables into account. For future energy performance certificates a probable value of the consumption including a standard error can be estimated from these independent variables and the regression coefficients. A probability that the future consumption will turn out to be in this margin can be calculated and specified in the certificate.
Part 2 of the analysis will concentrate on the influence of usage parameters and error calculus.