A probabilistic approach for handling uncertainty in infrastructure LCA
|
|
|||||||||||
Bibliographic Details
| Author(s): |
Oskar Larsson
(Structural Engineering, Lund University, Lund, Sweden)
Dániel Honfi 
(SP Technical Research Institute of Sweden, Göteborg, Sweden)
Håkan Stripple (IVL Swedish Environmental Research Institute, Göteborg, Sweden) |
||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Medium: | conference paper | ||||
| Language(s): | English | ||||
| Conference: | IABSE Congress: Challenges in Design and Construction of an Innovative and Sustainable Built Environment, Stockholm, Sweden, 21-23 September 2016 | ||||
| Published in: | IABSE Congress Stockholm, 2016 | ||||
|
|||||
| Page(s): | 1677-1685 | ||||
| Total no. of pages: | 9 | ||||
| Year: | 2016 | ||||
| DOI: | 10.2749/stockholm.2016.1673 | ||||
| Abstract: |
To demonstrate and support sustainability of large-scale infrastructure projects, life cycle assessment (LCA) has become a common tool used in the evaluation of environmental impact. However, LCA includes a number of phases, which are all associated with uncertainties. Decisions made without regard to these uncertainties may be suboptimal and/or misleading. The current paper discusses some important issues about how to deal with uncertainties in LCA. Two case studies are presented that shows the effect of including uncertainty in various parameters. The results show that a reduction in uncertainty due to manufacturing improvements can increase the reliability of the results significantly. It was also found that the uncertainty assumptions for parameters where data is not available have a large impact on the LCA-results. |
||||
| Keywords: |
LCA life-cycle analysis uncertainty probabilistic analysis data quality investment decisions
|
||||