Unsicherheiten bei der Quantifizierung von Hochwasser-Schadenspotenzialen

Uncertainties in the quantification of flood damage potential

The determination of flood damage potential in cost-benefit analyses is carried out in the individual federal states mostly with conventional use-oriented damage models. This type of damage functions provides expected values (average values) for the losses depending on the use and flood-specific impact parameters. The large scatter of reported losses is neglected.
The paper considers the impact of vulnerability determining building parameter and different possible (use compliant) building stocks on these models.
On the basis of Monte Carlo simulations, the scatter of the potential losses is calculated applying the vulnerability based, microscale EDAC-flood damage model for real flooding scenarios.
The results illustrate that these uncertainties of the prognosis should be considered in the loss assessment and in particular for the scope of cost-benefit decisions.