A Systematic and Objective Framework for Evaluating Subcontractor Performance Using Monte Carlo Simulation Coupled with the Analytic Hierarchy Process and a Linear Additive Utility Model

The general contractor (GC)–subcontractor (SC) relationship is a crucial aspect of construction supply chain management, heavily influencing project outcomes. This study investigates a method for assessing SC performance and underscores its essential role in construction projects. Traditionally, SC assessments are based on subjective evaluations, which can lead to biased decision-making. To counter this, this study introduces a comprehensive framework that employs objective indices and a systematic evaluation method. The study begins with a comprehensive literature review and expert consultations to identify key indices for SC evaluation: time, cost, quality, safety, resources, satisfaction, and leadership. A hybrid method combining Monte Carlo simulation and the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) is employed to assign weights to these indices through the development of probability distributions, thereby reducing judgment uncertainty. The developed evaluation model incorporates normalization and a linear additive utility model (LAUM) to calculate a performance index (PI) that quantifies SC performance across various levels, from outstanding to poor. The normalization process is applied with three tolerance levels (high, medium, and low). A real case study with a three-scenario sensitivity analysis demonstrates the model’s effectiveness. This approach provides general contractors with a more objective and transparent assessment process, minimizing bias in evaluations.

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