Stochastic Finite Fault Modeling and Simulation of Strong Ground Motion of Mosha Fault in Iran

This study aims at predicting large earthquakes caused by Mosha fault in Tehran, the capital of Iran with population of more than 13 million people which located alongside active faults. This study uses the EXSIM program to do the finite fault modeling of simulation. Using Geopsy software and programming in MATLAB we evaluated the site effect of 13 station. Using other required parameters of Mosha fault in EXSIM, we gained the artificial strong motions of the stations. Finally, using SeismoSignal and MATLAB software, we depicted the Acceleration -time graph and the semi-logarithm frequency spectrum with “Fourier transform” of each station. we compared the results of the finite fault simulation with Ambraseys attenuation relationship, semi-logarithm frequency spectrum with Fourier transform and spectrum-response graphs of 2009 earthquake in Shahr-e Rey measuring Mw = 4.2. In both cases of comparing meaningful results were found. Finally, in order to generalize the results to the city of Tehran, we evaluated the seismicity using Arc GIS software. The results show that if Mosha fault is activated, east of Tehran is influenced the most. Consequently, it is of high importance to study different ways to reduce the risk of the possible earthquake caused by Mosha fault.