Statistical modeling for deformation analysis of concrete arch dams with influential horizontal cracks

Several concrete dams all over the world exhibit severe cracks. It is very important to investigate the influence of cracks on the long-term behavior of dam structures to ensure safe operation. The interpretation of measured dam displacements is usually based on statistical hydrostatic-seasonal-time and hydrostatic-thermal-time models. The main purpose of this article is to present a statistical hydrostatic-thermal-crack-time model to interpret displacements of concrete arch dams with influential horizontal cracks. The hydrostatic-thermal-crack-time model is applied to analyze the Chencun dam, an arch–gravity dam with a large-scale horizontal crack on the downstream face. The crack stretches horizontally across most of the dam blocks. Its crack mouth opening displacement had been continually increasing even after reinforcement treatment, accompanied by abnormal deformation characteristics of the arch–cantilever system. A three-dimensional finite element model, containing the pre-existing crack using special gap elements, is built to reproduce the structural response, assess the contribution of the crack on the registered movements, and obtain the relationship between the crack mouth opening displacement and the dam crest displacement. Based on this, the hydrostatic-thermal-CMOD-time model considering crack mouth opening displacement is developed. Compared with the traditional models, the hydrostatic-thermal-crack-time model is expected to provide a better fit accuracy. The results also show that the crack and the corresponding reinforcement measure have a significant effect on the deformation behavior of the dam. This can provide some useful indications for concrete structures with similar problems.