A spatial-demographic analysis of Africa’s emerging urban geography

We examine Africa’s emerging urban geography from a demographic perspective and discuss implications for development policy. We adopt an approach that defines urbanisation purely in spatial-demographic terms in recognition of the decoupling of urbanization (as a spatial-demographic process) from economic development in Africa. Our analysis uses the most up-to-date gridded population data (WorldPop) to analyse diverse patterns of “urban” settlement emerging on the continent and to show that the crucial variable influencing urbanization estimates is population density. Our analysis confirms that increased population density and concentration are only weakly linked to income in Africa and argue that the profound spatial-demographic changes underway are driving implicit demand for “urban” development interventions, including changes in governance and planning practice. We conclude that a spatial-demographic approach to measuring and monitoring changing patterns of human settlements is both conceptually and empirically robust and suggest improvements to current UN statistical practice.