Real Estate Development Feasibility and Hurdle Rate Selection

Real estate developers typically assess potential projects using feasibility analyses and industry-standard heuristics, which include capital costs, return on costs, and a subjective risk measure. This study explores real estate developers’ decision-making practices in selecting hurdle rates and common feasibility analysis techniques, surveying 225 Australian and New Zealand developers. The main findings are that most developers use specific ‘go/no-go’ hurdle rate mechanisms irrespective of primary real estate type, with the majority using margin on development cost (MDC) or internal rate of return (IRR); the boundaries between traditional speculative development and real estate investment through the use of securitization methods have become blurred; many developers use both quantitative metrics, with qualitative methods and specific structural checks to manage the risks involved; and the two most frequent methods of determining site value prior to acquisition are the residual land value and discounted cash flow methods. Most place a heavy reliance on industry-accepted heuristics and do not have a predetermined process and method for altering or adapting the chosen hurdle rates and benchmarks. This research provides a contribution to property development practice from the Antipodean perspective which until now has been more focused on the UK view, enabling more generalized application internationally.

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