Probabilistische Berücksichtigung von Kosten- und Mengenrisiken in der Angebotskalkulation

Probabilistic consideration of cost and quantity risks in a detailed estimate.

Construction companies have to deal with a vast number of risks, which can jeopardise a firm's existence. Therefore, companies have to identify and evaluate project risk to take countermeasures. Within a cybernetic risk management model the effectiveness of measures have to be analysed and the risk has to be re-assessed. Thus, efficient risk management can gain a competitive advantage for a company. This paper describes a method to quantify cost and quantity risks of service items, which form the detailed estimate. These risks are calculated by using stochastic approaches. Possible bid sums are estimated by applying Monte Carlo simulations. Applications of stochastic approaches on this level of detail are new in cost estimation of construction projects. The construction company has now additional information for decision making by access to detailed information on each quantity and cost risk of the project instead of one deterministic figure.