Modeling Traffic Function Reliability of Signalized Intersections with Control Delay

The performance of intersections has been considered a key factor in measuring the efficiency of urban road systems. In this paper, a reliability model for a two-phase signalized intersection is proposed on the basis of presenting a concept of traffic function reliability (TFR). First, classic cumulative curves are created to derive delay formulas. Then, a model for traffic function reliability is proposed based on the quantitative relationship between the random traffic flows, signal timing, and queue lengths. Finally, the delay threshold of the intersection is determined by referring to the level of service. A numerical simulation has been created to clarify the proposed mechanism of TFR. The results show that the saturation and the green time ratio have a dramatical influence on TFR. Under different saturation levels, the sensitivity of TFR to changes in green time ratio gradually weakened. When the green signal ratio increases above a certain value, TFR remains nearly constant. A microscopic simulation verified the applicability of the proposed model. The results show that the accuracy of the model is close to 90% in the case of low saturation. This method provides road authorities useful insights to understand travel time variability.

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