Heat Demand Uncertainty Evaluation of Typical Multi-flat Panel Building

Heat consumption of similar buildings under the same climatic conditions normally shows different values. This phenomenon has not been adequately explored yet. The purpose of the paper was to investigate the reasons and extent of heat demand variability by employing uncertainty analysis. This paper addresses uncertainties of building thermal behaviour by combining simplified heat demand evaluation methods with Monte Carlo sampling method. Output of this analysis provides an insight into the variability of the calculation result due to the variation and input parameters uncertainty. The heat demand variation range due to input parameter variation in line with standard requirements was assessed to be ±22 % of the average value.