Estimating Compounding Storm Surge and Sea Level Rise Effects and Bias Correction Impact when Projecting Future Impact on Volcanic Islands in Oceania. Case Study of Viti Levu, Fiji

Oceania comprises many Small Island Developing States (SIDS), the majority of which are founded on volcanic islands. Small islands are generally vulnerable to the effects of climate change. However, a high number of islands and different coastal morphology make it challenging to accurately estimate climate change impact on this region. Nevertheless, quantifying hazards and thus assessing vulnerability is crucial for policymaking and adaptation efforts regarding SIDS. Meanwhile, Viti Levu is the principal island of Fiji. Therefore, climate change projection in Viti Levu helps estimate how volcanic islands in Oceania will be affected under future climate. This study projects the compound impact of storm surge by tropical cyclone (TC) and SLR on Viti Levu under current and future climate conditions. The primary goal of this study is to estimate the impact of extreme 50- and 100-years return storms on coastal areas and populations. This study also assesses the impact of the bias correction of TC intensity for impact assessment. Even though limited to one island, the results could facilitate the application on other volcanic islands, primarily in Melanesia. Even though Viti Levu is a high island, tropical cyclones can sustain extensive economic damage and result in high numbers of the temporarily displaced population in some low-lying coastal locations. The results show that bias can be significant when comparing observed and estimated datasets, particularly for less intense and future extreme events.

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