Eficácia da ferramenta de progressão de arquivos climáticos CCWorldWeatherGen (Effectiveness of CCWorldWeatherGen weather file generation tool)

This paper aimed to analyze the effectiveness of the CCWorldWeatherGen tool, focusing on climate change in São Paulo, São Paulo State, Brazil. For this, dry-bulb temperature, relative humidity, global solar radiation, and wind speed data from the test reference year weather file (1954) and the CCWorldWeatherGen file for the 2020 period (representing the 2011-2040 period) were compared with observational data collected between 2011 and 2023 by the Meteorological Station of the Institute of Astronomy, Geophysics, and Atmospheric Sciences of the University of São Paulo. The accuracy of variables predicted using weather files was evaluated using five statistical measures of error. Annual relative root mean square error (RRMSE) values for dry-bulb temperature, relative humidity, global solar radiation, and wind speed in the morphed weather file were 17.04% (good), 17.95% (good), 31.57% (poor), and 224.44% (poor), respectively. It is concluded that CCWorldWeatherGen is suitable for generating future weather files with complete information, mainly for its practicality. However, this approach requires caution, as sequences depend on the consistency of the weather file used as a basis.