Could It Happen Here?

The catastrophic tsunami that struck southern Asia on December 26, 2004, underscored the extraordinary social and economic havoc that such an event can wreak. Could it happen here in the United States, in particular, off the coast of Southern California? The disturbing answer is that, yes, it could. Although the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s National Ocean Service has 13 continuously operating tide stations in the state of California that are capable of producing real-time data for tsunami warnings, there is no way to prevent a strike. Recent developments in the modeling of tsunami waves and the analysis of their economic consequences, combined with data from recent offshore mapping of the Santa Barbara Channel and other locations, suggest the mechanism and economic effect of an undersea landslide in the vicinity of Los Angeles that would spawn a tsunami.