0
  • DE
  • EN
  • FR
  • International Database and Gallery of Structures

Advertisement

Copula-Based Probabilistic Hazard Assessment Model for Debris Flow Considering the Uncertainties of Multiple Influencing Factors

Author(s): ORCID



Medium: journal article
Language(s): English
Published in: Advances in Civil Engineering, , v. 2024
Page(s): 1-11
DOI: 10.1155/2024/6554818
Abstract:

This paper proposes a probabilistic hazard assessment model for debris flows considering the uncertainties of multiple influencing factors based on copula approaches. Fifty-nine rainfall-induced debris flows occurred between 2001 and 2009 in Taiwan are taken as an illustrative example to validate the proposed approaches. A copula-based probabilistic model is developed to model the joint probability distribution of debris-flow volume V and its influencing factors (e.g., rainfall intensity, RI and landslide area, AL). The developed model is then used to make probabilistic prediction of debris-flow volume for a specific hazard level, and compared with the empirical approaches. The proposed probabilistic model is also used to develop the exceedance probability charts of quantities for a specific debris-flow basin. Results show that the developed V–RI–AL probabilistic model can provide reasonable estimates of debris-flow volume in Taiwan for a specific probability level of 0.94, and show better predictive performance than the empirical relationships by using an independent debris-flow dataset in Taiwan for validation. The developed multivariate joint probabilistic model can also provide the exceedance probability of debris flows through considering the uncertainties of debris flow and its influencing factors, providing a preliminary reference for hazard assessment of the debris flows.

Structurae cannot make the full text of this publication available at this time. The full text can be accessed through the publisher via the DOI: 10.1155/2024/6554818.
  • About this
    data sheet
  • Reference-ID
    10759391
  • Published on:
    15/03/2024
  • Last updated on:
    15/03/2024
 
Structurae cooperates with
International Association for Bridge and Structural Engineering (IABSE)
e-mosty Magazine
e-BrIM Magazine