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Challenges of Building Logic Trees for Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis

Author(s):
Medium: journal article
Language(s): English
Published in: Earthquake Spectra, , n. 4, v. 28
Page(s): 1723-1735
DOI: 10.1193/1.4000079
Abstract:

In the current practice of probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA), logic trees are widely used to represent and capture epistemic uncertainty in each element of the models for seismic sources and ground-motion prediction. Construction of a logic tree involves populating the branches with alternative models or parameter values, and then assigning weights, which together must represent the underlying continuous distribution. The logic tree must capture both the best estimates of what is known and the potential range of alternatives in light of what is currently not known. There are several scientific challenges involved in both populating the logic tree branches (for which new models often need to be developed) and in assigning weights to these branches. The most serious challenge facing this field now, however, may be a shortage of suitably qualified and experienced experts.

Structurae cannot make the full text of this publication available at this time. The full text can be accessed through the publisher via the DOI: 10.1193/1.4000079.
  • About this
    data sheet
  • Reference-ID
    10672567
  • Published on:
    18/06/2022
  • Last updated on:
    18/06/2022
 
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