The Application of Variable Weight Theory on the Suitability Evaluation of Urban Underground Space Development and Utilization for Urban Resilience and Sustainability

Urban underground space (UUS) is a significant natural resource to support many aspects of city development, but it is not sustainably developed and utilized during the urbanization process. This study considered 11 conditional and two sensitive factors and combined analytic hierarchy process (AHP) and variable weight theory (VWT) for the suitability evaluation of UUS development and utilization (SEUUSD&U) by taking the Jining city planning zone (JNPZ) as a case study. The results show that mining subsidence and groundwater-related factors are critical factors, which align with the real conditions. A significant increase in the weight of shallow groundwater can be observed after applying the VWT, rising from 0.1586 to 0.2544. This may result from significant extreme values, which WVT accurately identified and therefore increased the weights. From shallow to deep UUS, both the most suitable and least suitable areas increase, rising from 32.91% to 68.20% and from 0.57% to 3.01%, respectively. Based on two sensitive factors (key urban development and ecological protection), the study area was divided into four management zones. These sensitive factors often exhibit a “barrel effect”, showing the power to either definitively affirm or veto the outcomes. More importantly, this study proposes a generalized SEUUSD&U framework comprising six key steps, with particular emphasis on three aspects: “local conditions”, “barrel effect integration”, and “adaptive management strategies aligned with the United Nations sustainable development goals (SDGs)”. We strongly recommend that this framework be highly promoted in future research and strongly encourage future studies to place greater emphasis on the ultimate goal of achieving the SDGs by 2030 during updates to models, variable weight functions, factors, and frameworks.

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