A Comprehensive Reliability Assessment Method for Existing Railway Bridges Based on Bayesian Theory

The increase in traffic volume and train load poses new challenges to the reliability assessment of existing railway bridges. To construct a comprehensive assessment method for the safety and reliability of existing railway bridges, firstly, the risk factors of railway bridge structures are analyzed and the evaluation criteria are determined; secondly, based on the accident tree theory, a multilevel Bayesian network model with key points is established, and the ability of the Bayesian network bidirectional reasoning and sensitivity analysis is used to evaluate the structural safety; finally, the result was applied to the marina northern Songhua River extra-large bridge to verify the applicability of the comprehensive evaluation of the reliability of an existing railway bridge. This approach provides a theoretical basis for the maintenance and reinforcement of the Songhua River Bridge along the Bin-North Line.

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