Water Distribution System Pipe Break Failure Modeling and Analysis: Case Study of Kuwait

The Ministry of Electricity and Water (MEW), as well as other water authorities all over the world, is facing a difficult challenge in assessing the physical condition of its distribution systems. Since the majority of the mains are buried, the MEW must rely upon indirect methods, including analysis of repair records. A case study on Kuwait’s water distribution system using the techniques of survival analysis is analyzed and investigated for modeling the pipe break failures. The proportional hazard model has the advantage of being able to separate the effects of component deterioration on failure due to aging from the effects of site-specific causes. Another desirable feature is its ability to analyze censored data. The sensitivity of the model parameters to sample size and percent censoring is examined through random sampling of the database. In addition, the proportional hazard model is suitable for describing failure rates of components.

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