Uncertainty Analysis of Creep Behavior of Compacted Loess and a Non-Deterministic Predication Method for Post-Construction Settlement of a High-Fill Embankment

Property of geotechnical materials has inherent uncertainty due to the complex formation process and inevitable test error. However, existing long-term deformation prediction methods for geotechnical structure such as a filling embankment are deterministic, which ignores the uncertainty of soil property. In this study, the uncertainty of creep behavior of compacted loess was investigated through repetitive creep tests and statistical analysis. Five different loading levels and two loading modes were considered in the tests. The creep test was repeated 45 times for each condition. Through a statistical analysis for the test results, a modified Merchant creep model was established to improve the accuracy of long-term deformation prediction. An empirical transformation equation between staged loading and separated loading mode of the creep test results was also introduced to improve applicability of the method. On this basis, a non-deterministic predication method for post-construction settlement of loess fill embankment was proposed. Furthermore, the proposed method was applied to the prediction of the post-construction of a 61.5 m loess filling embankment. The measured on-site post-construction settlement value falls within the 95% confidence interval of the predicted range which proves the efficiency and practicability of the proposed non-deterministic predication method. Compared to deterministic methods, the proposed method can describe the predicted deformation in a probabilistic way in the form of contour plot. The proposed method provides a basic approach for the probabilistic design and reliability assessment of filling engineering.

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