Research on the Evaluation of Chinese Prefabricated Building Strategic Partners Based on Cloud Model and Improved Evidence Theory

In recent years, prefabricated buildings have developed rapidly in China. Compared with traditional buildings, prefabricated buildings require higher capabilities from partners in various aspects. However, due to the early stage of development of prefabricated buildings in China, the level of various enterprises varies greatly. How to evaluate partners scientifically and objectively is a realistic problem that needs to be solved urgently. In order to achieve economies of scale and promote the sustainable development of prefabricated buildings, this study proposes a novel evaluation model for strategic partner selection based on the cloud model and improved Dempster–Shafer (D-S) evidence theory. First, using a literature review and field research method, a strategic partner selection index system is developed that can reflect the characteristics of prefabricated buildings. To address the fuzziness and randomness of the traditional membership function, the cloud model is applied to calculate the membership value between the test samples and the benchmark cloud, which is subsequently transformed into basic probability distribution in the evidence theory. Furthermore, to mitigate the paradox of evidence fusion often encountered in traditional evidence theory, this model combines both the subjective and objective weights of evidence by game theory, and the conflicting evidence is corrected and fused according to the combination weight. Additionally, the Technique for Order Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution (TOPSIS) method is used to further optimize the strategic partners of prefabricated buildings. Finally, the optimal order obtained from the case analysis is S1 > S2 > S4 > S3 > S5, and the evaluation results are consistent with the actual situation, which verifies the effectiveness and superiority of the proposed model in resolving the evidence conflict and selecting strategic partners. The research results have certain reference significance for optimizing the selection mechanism of prefabricated building strategic partners and guiding partners to establish long-term and stable cooperative relations.

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