Reliability Assessment and Sensitivity Analysis of Concrete Gravity Dams by Considering Uncertainty in Reservoir Water Levels and Dam Body Materials

An elaborate safety assessment of the Pine Flat (PF) concrete gravity dam (CGD) has been conducted in this paper. Structural analysis was performed by taking into account the uncertainties in the physical and mechanical properties of the dam body materials and the reservoir water level. The coefficient of variation of 5 and 10 percent and the Gaussian distribution (GAUS) are assigned to random variables (RVs). Sensitivity analysis (SA) of the RVs is done, and important parameters introduced. SA is done to identify the most influential RVs on the structural response. Also, the modulus of elasticity of concrete is the most effective parameter in response to horizontal deformation of the dam crest. The concrete density and US hydrostatic pressure height are the most effective parameters, and the Poisson's ratio is the insignificant parameter on the dam response. To be confident in the safety of the dam body under usual loading, including the dam weight and the upstream (US) hydrostatic pressure, the reliability index (RI) has been obtained by Monte Carlo simulation. The RI for the coefficients of variation of 5 and 10 percent were obtained at 4.38 and 2.47, respectively. If the dispersion of RVs is high, then the dam will be at risk of failure.