Quantification of the impact of global warming on summer overheating risk in a residential building in urban areas in Belgium

Climate change has resulted in an increase of average outdoor temperature worldwide. With the rise of average outdoor temperature and unprecedented frequent heat waves, the demand for cooling systems in residential buildings has risen even in countries such as Belgium with moderate climates. However, there is a trade-off to consider when it comes to cooling. While active cooling methods can effectively maintain thermal comfort, they also come with excessive energy use in comparison to passive cooling techniques. However, passive cooling methods can lead to thermal discomfort and health issues during heat waves. To better understand this balancing act, this paper uses building energy simulation together with the measured current and accurately projected future climate data with high spatial resolution to investigate and quantify the potential for overheating in a selected residential representative building in the Flemish region of Belgium. Optimal solutions for renovation of the building are investigated including a variety of weather scenarios to account for climate change and to provide future-proof solutions. Results indicate that the renovation strategy is not affected by climate change for this case study. High insulation level with passive cooling strategy provided minimum energy use and acceptable summer overheating below 100 hours for this case study. Active cooling with medium and light renovation measures come with acceptable thermal comfort while also result in higher total energy use up to 53%.