Dynamics and Driving Mechanism of Real Estate in China’s Small Cities: A Case Study of Gansu Province

(1) Background: China is beginning to see increasingly complex real estate development dynamics as urbanization, industrialization and globalization advance. As a key driver of economic and social development in China’s cities, real estate has created prosperity while facing the risk of capitalization and a “hard landing”, making it increasingly difficult to bring it under control. (2) Methods: a new approach that integrates “evolution dynamics–driving mechanism–policy design” is constructed based on the Boston Consulting Group matrix, exploratory spatial data analysis, GIS and Geodetector, and this paper empirically studies the dynamics and driving mechanism of real estate development based on the case study of small county-level cities in Gansu, China. (3) Results: Firstly, real estate development in Gansu is characterized by significant spatial differentiation, heterogeneity and autocorrelation, and its distribution pattern comes into being from unsynchronized macroeconomic, population, social, industrial, institutional and policy development interweaved with the real estate control. Secondly, the real estate is diversified in spatiotemporal evolution models, and the cold and hot cities of different models are in quite different geographical patterns with high spatial agglomeration. Thirdly, there are many driving factors affecting the distribution patterns in real estate. These factors are in complex relationships and they are classified into three categories of “Scale–Contribution–Comprehensive”-oriented driving factor and three sub-categories of “Key–Important–Auxiliary” factors. Fourthly, the factors show large differences in the interaction effects, with the real estate industry scale influencing factors being dominated by bifactor enhancement and the economic contribution influencing factors being dominated by non-linear enhancement. Notably, factors such as permanent resident population, urbanization and government revenue have a strong direct influence on the industry scale and economic contribution of real estate, and factors such as expenditure, output value of industry, urbanization rate and number of secondary schools all have a strong interactive influence. (4) Conclusions: The cities are divided into four policy areas of comprehensive development, contribution improvement, scale growth and free decision. Furthermore, differentiated and adaptive measures are proposed for each zoning, which significantly improves the accuracy and synergy of urban real estate management.

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