CPT-Based Probabilistic Characterization of Undrained Shear Strength of Clay

Applying random field theory involves two important issues: the statistical homogeneity (or stationarity) and determination of random field parameters and correlation function. However, the profiles of soil properties are typically assumed to be statistically homogeneous or stationary without rigorous statistical verification. It is also a challenging task to simultaneously determine random field parameters and the correlation function due to a limited amount of direct test data and various uncertainties (e.g., transformation uncertainties) arising during site investigation. This paper presents Bayesian approaches for probabilistic characterization of undrained shear strength using cone penetration test (CPT) data and prior information. Homogeneous soil units are first identified using CPT data and subsequently assessed for weak stationarity by the modified Bartlett test to reject the null hypothesis of stationarity. Then, Bayesian approaches are developed to determine the random field parameters and simultaneously select the most probable correlation function among a pool of candidate correlation functions within the identified statistically homogeneous layers. The proposed approaches are illustrated using CPT data at a clay site in Shanghai, China. It is shown that Bayesian approaches provide a rational tool for proper determination of random field model for probabilistic characterization of undrained shear strength with consideration of transformation uncertainty.

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