Complexity Assessment in Projects Using Small-World Networks for Risk Factor Reduction

Despite following standard practices of well-known project management methodologies, some projects fail to achieve expected results, incurring unexplained cost overruns or delays. These problems occur regardless of the type of project, the environment, or the project manager’s experience and are characteristic of complex projects. Such projects require special control using a multidimensional network approach that includes contractual aspects, supply and resource considerations, and information exchange between stakeholders. By modelling project elements as nodes and their interrelations as links within a network, we can analyze how components evolve and influence each other, a phenomenon known as coevolution. This network analysis allows us to observe not only the evolution of individual nodes but also the impact of their interrelations on the overall dynamics of the project. Two metrics are proposed to address the inherent complexity of these projects: one to assess Structural Complexity (SC) and the other to measure Dynamic Complexity (DC). These metrics are based on Boonstra and Reezigt’s studies on the dimensions and domains of complex projects. These two metrics have been combined to create a Global Complexity Index (GCI) for measuring project complexity under uncertainty using fuzzy logic. These concepts are applied to a case of study, the construction of a wastewater treatment plant, a complex project due to the intense interrelations, the integration of new technologies that require R&D, and its location next to a natural park. The application of the GCI allows constant monitoring of dynamic complexity, thus providing a tool for risk anticipation and decision support. Also, the integration of fuzzy logic in the model facilitates the incorporation of imprecise or partially defined information. It makes it possible to deal efficiently with the dynamic variation of complexity parameters in the project, adapting to the inherent uncertainties of the environment.

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