Bridge Performance Prediction Based on a Novel SHM-Data Assimilation Approach considering Cyclicity

Modern bridges are monitored by an increasing network of sensors that produce massive data for bridge performance prediction. Reasonably and dynamically predicting with monitored data for the time-variant reliability of the existing bridges has become one of the urgent problems in structural health monitoring (SHM). This study, taking the dynamic measure of structural stress over time as a time series, proposes a data assimilation approach to predicting reliability based on extreme stress data with cyclicity. To this aim, the objectives of this article are to present the following: (a) a Gaussian mixture model-based Bayesian cyclical dynamic linear model (GMM-BCDLM) based on extreme stress data with cyclicity and (b) a dynamic reliability prediction method in the combination of GMM-BCDLM and SHM data via first_order second-moment (FOSM) method. An in-service bridge for providing real-time monitored stress data is applied to illustrate the application and feasibility of the proposed method. Then, the effectiveness and prediction precision of the proposed models are proved to be superior compared to other prediction approaches to extreme stress data with cyclicity.