Study on Life-Cycle Carbon Footprints and an Uncertainty Analysis of Mega Sporting Events: An Analysis in China

This study proposes a model for the quantitative evaluation of the life-cycle carbon footprints of large sporting events and the uncertainties related to them. The model was used to analyze the case of a mega sporting event in Beijing, China. First, the quantitative model for the evaluation of the carbon footprints of mega sporting events includes a preparation stage, a holding stage, and an end stage. These stages consider the energy and resources used for construction, operation, transportation, catering, and accommodation. Second, this study proposes a prediction model using model-based and simulation-based methods to address the difficulty of obtaining traffic activity. Third, a semi-quantitative method that combines a data quality indicator and stochastic simulation is adopted for the uncertainty analysis of mega sporting events. Finally, a case study is used to indicate that the preparation stage of a mega sporting event accounts for the highest CO2 emissions at 92.1%, followed by 7.5% in the holding stage and 0.4% in the end stage. The total life-cycle CO2 emissions of a sustainable scenario of a mega sporting event in Beijing amount to 205,080.3 t CO2e, and the per capita CO2 emissions during the event’s holding stage amount to 0.26 t CO2e/person. The uncertainty in the input parameters is 0.0617, indicating that the uncertainty of the model is low, and the reliability of the results is high.

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