Research on Real-Time Energy Consumption Prediction Method and Characteristics of Office Buildings Integrating Occupancy and Meteorological Data

A method based on Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) networks is proposed to forecast hourly energy consumption. Using an office building in Shanghai as a case study, hourly data on occupancy, weather, and energy consumption were collected. Daily energy consumption was analyzed using single-link clustering, and days were classified into three types. The key input variables significantly influencing energy consumption, solar radiation, occupancy, and outdoor dry bulb temperature are identified by the Pearson correlation coefficient. By comparing five algorithms, it was found that the LSTM model performed the best. After considering the occupancy, the hourly MAPE was reduced from 11% to 9%. Accuracy improvements for each day type were noted as 1% for weekdays, 4% for Saturday, and 7% for Sunday. Further analysis indicated that the model started to predict the time (1:00) and commute time (7:00 and 17:00) with large errors. The model was optimized by varying the time step. For the times 1:00, 7:00, and 17:00, the best optimization of the model was achieved when the time step values were set to 6 h, 24 h, and 18 h with an MAPE of 3%, 6%, and 5%, respectively. As the model time step increased (≤2 weeks), the accuracy of the model decreased to 6%.

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