Predictive heating load management and energy flexibility analysis in residential sector using an archetype gray-box modeling approach: Application to an experimental house in Québec

This paper presents a methodology to develop archetype gray-box models and use them in an economic model-based predictive control algorithm to simulate optimal heating load management in response to a newly-introduced static time-of-use tariff for Québec’s residential sector, rate Flex-D. The methodology is evaluated through a case study, wherein in situ measurements from a two-storey unoccupied research house of Hydro-Québec are used to develop an 11R6C network with a heuristic zoning-by-floor approach and compute the sequence of optimal electric heating input for the next control horizon. Properly-tuned economic model-based predictive control under rate Flex-D shows potential for an approximately 30% reduction in daily heating cost compared to the reference operation, with a minimal average deviation of indoor air temperature from the reference setpoint. Also, the analysis of the response’s sensitivity to weather forecast uncertainties indicates that the most influential uncontrolled input directing the performance of economic model-based predictive control is the structure price signal, rendering the impact of uncertainty in the weather forecast negligible.