Flutter Fragility Analysis of Long-Span Bridges Based on 3D Typhoon Model Using Geographically Weighted Regression

The long-span bridges in coastal region of China exposed to the challenge of typhoon-induced flutter instability with the continuous increase the span length and flexibility of bridges. A Monte- Carlo-technique-based framework to analyse the flutter fragility long-span bridges subjected to typhoon winds is developed. A 3D typhoon boundary layer wind field model and a geographically- weighted-regression (GWR) -based stochastic track model are proposed to generate a large quantity of synthetic tracks around the bridge site before achieving the typhoon wind hazard curves at the height of the bridge deck. The flutter critical wind speed of the bridge is derived accounting for the structural modal and damping randomness as well as experiment-induced errors of aeroelastic flutter derivatives. The typhoon-induced flutter failure probabilities of the bridge are then predicted and compared with code-suggested target reliability indices.

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