Effect of Statistical Uncertainties in Ground Snow Load on Structural Reliability
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Bibliografische Angaben
| Autor(en): |
Árpád Rózsás
(Budapest University of Technology and Economics, Budapest, Hungary)
Miroslav Sýkora 
(Czech Technical University in Prague, Prague, Czech Republic)
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| Medium: | Tagungsbeitrag | ||||
| Sprache(n): | Englisch | ||||
| Tagung: | IABSE Conference: Structural Engineering: Providing Solutions to Global Challenges, Geneva, Switzerland, September 2015 | ||||
| Veröffentlicht in: | IABSE Conference Geneva 2015 | ||||
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| Seite(n): | 220-227 | ||||
| Anzahl der Seiten (im PDF): | 8 | ||||
| Jahr: | 2015 | ||||
| DOI: | 10.2749/222137815818357142 | ||||
| Abstrakt: |
This paper studies the effect of commonly neglected statistical uncertainties on structural reliability. The failure probability of a generic structural member, subjected to snow load is analysed using frequentist and Bayesian techniques to quantify parameter estimation and model selection uncertainties in ground snow load. Various variable to dead load ratios are considered to cover a wide range of real structures. The analysis reveals that statistical uncertainties may have a substantial effect on reliability. By accounting for parameter estimation uncertainty, the failure probability can increase by more than an order of magnitude. Bayesian posterior predictive distribution is recommended to incorporate parameter estimation uncertainty in reliability studies. |
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| Stichwörter: |
Schneelast Bayes'sche Statistik Tragwerkszuverlässigkeit
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