Vulnerability Assessment of the Prefabricated Building Supply Chain Based on Set Pair Analysis

In recent years, the disruption of the prefabricated building supply chain has led to increased construction period delays and cost overruns, limiting the development and popularization of prefabricated buildings in China. Therefore, this study established a vulnerability evaluation index system for the prefabricated building supply chain using the driving force–pressure–state–impact–response (DPSIR) framework. We employed the intuitionistic fuzzy analytic hierarchy process (IFAHP), the projection pursuit (PP) model, and variable weight theory to determine the indicator weights. The IFAHP was utilized to reduce the subjectivity in weight assignment and to obtain the degree of membership, non-membership, and hesitation of experts in evaluating the importance of indicators. The PP model was used to determine objective weights based on the structure of the evaluation data, and variable weight theory was applied to integrate subjective and objective weights according to management needs. We utilized Set Pair Analysis (SPA) to establish a vulnerability evaluation model for the building supply chain, treating evaluation data and evaluation levels as a set pair. By analyzing the degree of identity, difference, and opposition of the set pair, we assessed and predicted the vulnerability of the building supply chain. Taking the Taohua Shantytown project in Nanchang as a case study, the results showed that the primary index with the greatest influence on the vulnerability of the prefabricated building supply chain was the driving force, with a weight of 0.2692, followed by the secondary indices of market demand and policy support, with weights of 0.0753 and 0.0719, respectively. The project’s average vulnerability rating was moderate (Level III), and it showed an improvement trend. During the project’s implementation, the total cost overrun of the prefabricated building supply chain was controlled within 5% of the budget, the construction period delay did not exceed 7% of the plan, and the rate of production safety accidents was below the industry average. The results demonstrated that the vulnerability assessment method for the prefabricated building supply chain based on SPA comprehensively and objectively reflected the vulnerability of the supply chain. It is suggested to improve the transparency and flexibility of the supply chain, strengthen daily management within the supply chain, and enhance collaboration with supply chain partners to reduce vulnerability.

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