Use of Scenario-Building Transportation Model for Developing Countries

Scenario building is a technique used to evaluate a set of alternatives and give policy makers a quick tool for identifying which are politically viable. The transportation system hierarchy prevailing in a large metropolitan area in a developing country is examined using a scenario-building model. The model is bidimensional with two parameters: distance traveled and the value of time of persons using the transportation system. It is applied to metropolitan Madras (population 6 million) in India. Two scenarios are developed: first, using the perceived costs of various modes available in Madras, and second, using costs reflecting the changes that could arise as a result of policy changes. Results suggest that policy needs to be oriented toward promoting the use of non-motorized modes, motorized two-wheelers, and public transit instead of emulating that of developed countries. This model and its results will be useful to decision makers in examining scenarios of their choice.