Safety risk prediction of cantilever construction of sanduizi super large bridge on Jinshajiang River Based on basic Bayes model

In order to better control the safety risk of bridge construction, this paper takes the cantilever construction of sanduizi super large bridge on Jinshajiang River as an example, and establishes the safety risk prediction model by using Bayes principle. Firstly, it constructs the Bayes relationship model of construction environmental factors and cantilever construction key process risk factors and events, and then uses Bayes theory to analyze the probability of risk events in various cases. Finally, the overall safety risk of cantilever construction, the influence degree of various influencing factors on the overall safety risk and the most unfavorable risk combination are studied. Through the application of examples, the results show that on the basis of theoretical research, targeted safety control measures are taken, and the safety risk is effectively controlled.

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