Research on Quantitative Assessment and Dynamic Reasoning Method for Emergency Response Capability in Prefabricated Construction Safety

In response to the common issues of lacking a comprehensive quantitative assessment system and insufficient dynamic understanding of emergency response capability in prefabricated construction safety, this study proposes a research methodology based on decision-making trial and evaluation laboratory (DEMATEL) and fuzzy cognitive maps (FCM) to promote the construction of emergency response capacity. Firstly, a quantitative evaluation indicator system comprising 4 core categories of organizational management, personnel quality, technical measures, and emergency resources, along with 16 main categories, is established using grounded theory and three levels of coding approach. Subsequently, through a combination of expert surveys and quantitative analysis, DEMATEL is employed to unveil the causal relationships and key indicators of the evaluation criteria. Next, the DEMATEL and FCM models are integrated to conduct predictive and diagnostic reasoning analysis based on key indicators. Finally, a case study is conducted to validate the usability and effectiveness of the proposed model and methodology. The results demonstrate that indicators related to organizational management and personnel quality belong to the cause group, while technical measures and emergency resources fall into the effect group. The “completeness of emergency plans” exhibits the most significant influence on other indicators and is also the most influenced indicator by others. Predictive reasoning analysis reveals that well-controlled “emergency organizational structure and procedures” are crucial for enhancing emergency response capacity. Diagnostic reasoning analysis indicates that the improvement of emergency response capability should focus on enhancing the “completeness of emergency plans”. The synergistic effect between “emergency organizational structure and procedures” and “completeness of emergency plans” contributes to the enhancement of emergency response capability in prefabricated construction safety. The study holds both theoretical and practical significance for advancing safety management in prefabricated construction. Considering the dynamic coupling of multiple factors will be the primary direction of research in the field of safety management in the future.

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