Research on Carbon Emission Pre-Assessment of Residential Buildings in Xi’an City during the Scheme Design Stage

The effect of energy saving and carbon reduction in the building industry is closely related to the realization of China’s double carbon goal. In this study, a two-dimensional framework for building life cycle carbon emissions was established, which takes into account the early stages of building design such as the feasibility study stage and scheme design stage. Taking 57 residential buildings in Xi’an City as examples, the life cycle carbon emission characteristics of residential buildings in cold areas were introduced. This study found that the life cycle carbon emission intensity is about 45~55 kgCO2/(m2·a). The operation and maintenance stage and building materials production stage accounted for the largest proportion of carbon emissions, and the sum of carbon emissions of the two stages accounted for 92.3% of the total carbon emissions. In addition, based on the probability density function, the carbon emission intensity distributions of the building life cycle, building material production stage, building material transportation stage, and operation and maintenance stage were analyzed, and it was found that each distribution fitting graph was generally in line with a lognormal distribution, and their expected value provided a reference index for carbon emission pre-assessment in the feasibility study stage. Based on the analysis and determination of 11 independent variables that affect the total carbon emissions, such as area, floor number, story height, and number of households, a multiple linear regression model for carbon emission pre-assessment in the design stage of building schemes is proposed. The R2adj of the model is 0.985 and the error is about 10%. The prediction model can provide beneficial guidance for the life cycle carbon emission prediction in the design stage of building projects, so as to reduce carbon emissions by changing building design.

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