Relationships Between Common Distresses in Flexible Pavements and Physical Properties of Construction Materials Using an Ordinal Logistic Regression Model

Analytical models to predict distresses and service conditions of road pavements can greatly contribute to the development of an effective pavement management system. These models allow the transportation agencies to monitor and track the deterioration of pavements and consequently determine the needed maintenance operations to preserve the performance of the network. In this research, the pavement distresses and service conditions of the Indus Highway N-55 located in Karak district, Pakistan were examined. Distresses were identified by visual observation, and then their severity and extent were measured individually by using a Vernier caliper and a measuring scale. For each distress type, the corresponding PCR was calculated. The compaction densities of the base and wearing courses were considered as input parameters to develop an ordinal logistic regression model for two dominant distresses, namely rutting and potholes. Rutting severity and extent were divided into three levels, while pothole severity was divided into four levels. Bulk and maximum specific gravity were found to have a significant impact on the models of both distresses. The model can be used to predict their development in terms of severity and extent. The proposed formulation provides valuable insights into monitoring and predicting pavement distresses by assessing the densities of road construction materials.

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