A probabilistic approach for risk assessment of moisture-related degradation of building envelopes

The performance and durability of wood-frame building envelopes is affected by long-term moisture transport and its impact. Despite considerable progress in deterministic and prescriptive methodologies aimed at estimating moisture deposition and the consequent risk of mold growth, a consensus in methodology applicable to the analysis of moisture risk in building enclosures is an unfinished agenda. This might partly be caused by uncertainties that exist due to variations in input parameters, model structure, and data scarcity. To address this issue, this study presents a probabilistic risk assessment of building envelope deterioration from moisture accumulation. The proposed methodology integrates the development of meta-models, a full-factorial response surface methodology, and Bayesian analysis. The effectiveness of the proposed approach is demonstrated through a parametric analysis of typical wall assemblies featuring diverse layers and boundary conditions. The findings highlight the influence of input variables and their relative significance on moisture accumulation in the selected climate zones. Additionally, a sensitivity analysis of model parameters and the application of Bayesian analysis in specific contexts are presented, facilitating comparative evaluation of moisture-related risk of building envelopes.