Peak Assessment and Driving Factor Analysis of Residential Building Carbon Emissions in China’s Urban Agglomerations

Urban agglomerations, as hubs of population, economic activity, and energy consumption, significantly contribute to greenhouse gas emissions. The interconnected infrastructure, energy networks, and shared economic systems of these regions create complex emission dynamics that cannot be effectively managed through isolated city-level strategies. However, these regions also present unique opportunities for innovation, policy implementation, and resource optimization, making them crucial focal points in efforts to reduce carbon emissions. This study examines China’s three major urban agglomerations: the Yangtze River Delta, the Pearl River Delta, and the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei region. Utilizing data from 2005 to 2020 and a comprehensive evaluation model (BCPCAM), the research offers more profound insights into the socio-economic factors and collaborative mechanisms influencing emission trends, facilitating the development of targeted strategies for sustainable development and carbon neutrality. The findings indicate that (1) economic development and carbon control can progress synergistically to some extent, as economically advanced cities like Beijing and Shanghai have achieved their carbon peaks earlier; (2) natural resource endowment significantly affects urban carbon emissions, with resource-rich cities such as Tangshan and Handan, where fossil fuels dominate the energy mix, facing considerable challenges in reducing emissions; and (3) notable differences exist in the growth patterns of carbon emissions between urban and rural buildings, underscoring the need for tailored carbon reduction policies.

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