The Net Zero Emissions Decision Model of the Sustainable Path of Chinese Business Parks

Business parks account for 30% of China’s total carbon emissions. Exploring emissions reduction approaches for business parks is crucial to achieve a net-zero emissions target, as well as for achieving a representative example for all types of emissions entities. Business parks mainly adopt two types of emissions reduction approaches: energy-saving renovations and purchasing carbon reduction products. However, there are limited studies focusing on the optimal combinations of the two approaches for reaching net-zero emissions and evaluating the cost effectiveness. To find a feasible and quantified way to build net-zero business park, a comprehensive path decision model is proposed. The problem is broken down into two parts: the optimal carbon reduction portfolio and the optimal electricity saving were researched. For the optimal product portfolio, the Markowitz theory is employed to balance the risk of carbon reduction products with the expected cost. In the part of optimal electricity saving, considering a ten-year life cycle, the total cost includes renovation investment, carbon reduction products cost, and cost saving of electricity consumption reduction. Based on the energy consumption, technical, and price data, the combination of energy-saving renovations and carbon reduction products is optimized. The model suggests a business park can save 24% of energy consumption through renovation investment and purchase CCER as 66% of the carbon reduction product portfolio. Taking only purchasing carbon reduction products as a benchmark to assess economic efficiency, implementing an optimized level of energy-saving renovation is found to save 16% of the comprehensive cost for the life cycle required to achieve zero carbon emissions. This model provides a new comprehensive optimization idea that will help future parks make decisions to achieve zero-carbon emission targets.

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