Modeling Rollover Crash Risks: The Influence of Road Infrastructure and Traffic Stream Characteristics

Rollover crashes are among the most prevalent types of accidents in developing countries. Various factors may contribute to the occurrence of rollover crashes. However, limited studies have simultaneously investigated both traffic stream and road-related variables. For instance, the effects of T-intersection density, U-turns, roadside parking lots, the entry and exit ramps of side roads, as well as traffic stream characteristics (e.g., standard deviation of vehicle speeds, speed violations, presence or absence of speed cameras, and road surface deterioration) have not been thoroughly explored in previous research. Additionally, the simultaneous modeling of crash frequency and intensity remains underexplored. This study examines single-vehicle rollover crashes in Yazd Province, located in central Iran, as a case study and simultaneously evaluates all the variables. A dataset comprising three years of crash data (2015–2017) was collected and analyzed. A crash index was developed based on the weight of crash intensity, road type, road length (as dependent variables), and road infrastructure and traffic stream properties (as independent variables). Initially, the dataset was refined to determine the significance of explanatory variables on the crash index. Correlation analysis was conducted to assess the linear independence between variable pairs using the variance inflation factor (VIF). Subsequently, various models were compared based on goodness of fit (GOF) indicators and odds ratio (OR) calculations. The results indicated that among ten crash modeling techniques, namely, Poisson, negative binomial (NB), zero-truncated Poisson (ZTP), zero-truncated negative binomial (ZTNB), zero-inflated Poisson (ZIP), zero-inflated negative binomial (ZINB), fixed-effect Poisson (FEP), fixed-effect negative binomial (FENB), random-effect Poisson (REP), and random-effect negative binomial (RENB), the FENB model outperformed the others. The Akaike information criterion (AIC) and Bayesian information criterion (BIC) values for the FENB model were 1305.7 and 1393.6, respectively, demonstrating its superior performance. The findings revealed a declining trend in the frequency and severity of rollover crashes.

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