Interval Nonprobabilistic Reliability Analysis for Ancient Landslide considering Strain-Softening Behavior: A Case Study

Uncertainties in geotechnical parameters significantly affect the stability evaluation of an ancient landslide, especially when considering the strain-softening behavior. Due to the great difficulty in obtaining the probability density distribution of geoparameters, an interval nonprobability reliability analysis framework combined with numerical strain-softening constitutive relations was established in this paper. Interval variables were defined as the uncertain parameters in the strain-softening model. The interval nonprobabilistic reliability was defined as the minimum distance from the origin point to the failure surface in the standard normal space, which is the key index for describing the ability of a system to tolerate the variation of uncertain parameters. The proposed method was used to evaluate the reliability of Baishi ancient landslide. The parameter sensitivity analysis was also conducted. Through the proposed method, it is considered that Baishi ancient landslide is safe and stable, and the strain thresholdk_ris the dominant parameter. The results calculated by the proposed method agree well with the actual situation. This indicates the proposed method is more applicable than the traditional probability method when the data are scare.

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