An Evaluation Model of Carbon Emission Reduction Effect of Prefabricated Buildings Based on Cloud Model from the Perspective of Construction Supply Chain

Prefabricated buildings are the future direction of the construction industry. The carbon reduction in prefabricated buildings has attracted increasing attention due to its importance to low-carbon and energy savings in the construction industry and achieving China’s “dual carbon” goal. Although research has been conducted on carbon reduction in prefabricated buildings, the use of cloud models for carbon reduction effect evaluation has not been explored. This study therefore aims to develop a cloud model-based evaluation of the carbon emission reduction effect for prefabricated buildings incorporating the characteristics of prefabricated buildings and the building supply chain. The developed model can support assessments of the whole life cycle phases of a prefabricated building. Firstly, carbon flow analysis is carried out from the perspective of the construction supply chain, and the carbon emission reduction effect evaluation index system of prefabricated buildings is established, which contains 5 guideline layers and 26 carbon emission reduction indicators. Secondly, the Continuous Ordered Weighted Averaging operator (C-OWA) is used to calculate the index weight calculation, and the cloud model is applied to conduct a comprehensive evaluation of the carbon emission reduction effect. Finally, this model is applied to evaluate the carbon emission reduction effect in the case of a building. The case study validated the efficiency of the developed model. This study extends the knowledge of carbon emission reduction by addressing specific characteristics of prefabrication and the construction supply chain. This validated model will enhance the willingness to apply prefabricated buildings to reduce carbon emissions and achieve the “dual carbon” goal.

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