Empirical Study on the Growth Model and the Division of Lifecycle Phases about the Chinese Construction Industry

The construction industry plays a fundamental and pillared role in the national economy. Since the reform and opening-up, great contribution has been made to the modernization and urbanization by construction industry. This paper collected statistics data from 1989 to 2012, analyzing the history, the present situation and the future trend of the development of national construction industry by using the Logistic growth model and the Gompertz curve model. The results showed that the actual data of the national construction industry were in good agreement with the two models. The average annual growth rate of the gross product was 16.88% (according to the constant prices in 1989). However, it has entered into the mature phase of the industry life cycle now. Although the gross product will continuously grow over a period of time in the future, but the extent of increase is gradually taking slow (The inflection point T is in August 2011). Faced with the existed problems of relatively saturated capacity, low-level quality, insufficient awareness of ecological energy-saving, low technical efficiency, little contributions of science and technology, this paper suggests that the government should further deepen the Reform of the system, optimize the industrial structure and standardize the market order. And the enterprises should strengthen the capacity of the capital operation, upgrade the level of the management and technology and enhance their core competitiveness. Through these measures, the national construction industry can be prevented from falling into recession too fast and keep its maturity and stability, promoting the transformation of construction industry from the "extensive" development mode to "intensive" mode.

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