Effect and Mechanism of China’s Prefabricated Building Policies To Promote Patent Output With Carbon-neutrality As a Target

Unlike cast-in-place buildings, prefabricated buildings can conserve energy and reduce pollution, diminish damage to the environment caused by construction projects, drive greening of the construction industry, and promote carbon neutrality. The prefabricated construction industry is highly developed in China. This study analyzes prefabricated building policies and patents in Chinese provinces from 2011 to 2020 and systematically discusses the impact mechanism of supply-oriented, environment-oriented, and demand-oriented prefabricated building policies on patent output from static and dynamic perspectives. Correlations between policies and patent output were analyzed in the spatiotemporal dimension from a static perspective. A system dynamics model was used to investigate the causal relationship between the enterprise, university research, and government subsystems. Simulations were conducted to determine the sensitivity of policies in different dimensions to evaluate the impact of different policy categories and dynamics on patent output. The results: (1) policies are significantly and positively spatiotemporally correlated with patent output; (2) patent output increases over time, the positive effect is enhanced when policy implementation is strengthened; and (3) the effects of different dimensional policies on patent output differ across different periods. Overall, the effect of demand-oriented policies was the most significant, followed by environment- and supply-oriented policies. Before 2020, the effects of environment- and supply-oriented policies were equivalent, but the promotional effects of supply-oriented policies became more prominent after that, and (4) sub-policies contributing to dimensional policies vary. Fiscal and financial, science and technology, and public procurement sub-policies are critical in supply-, environment-, and demand-oriented policies, respectively. The findings can contribute to a virtuous cycle of prefabricated building policies and patent output systems, and provide information to accelerate sustainable, green industrialized development of the prefabricated construction industry in China.