Dynamic Risk Assessment of Karst Tunnel Collapse Based on Fuzzy-AHP: A Case Study of the LianHuaShan Tunnel, China

Tunnel collapse in the karst tunnel occurs suddenly. Dynamic risk assessment for tunnel collapse is more accurate than static analysis, which is not enough at the stage. The study designs a new questionnaire to establish dynamic risk assessment for karst tunnels collapse, by a fuzzy analytic hierarchy process (F-AHP) method. The characteristics of the cave, dynamic monitoring, and prediction are fully considered in the assessment to strengthen the karst and dynamic characters: (1) the factors of dynamic risk assessment are selected based on advanced geological prediction, collapse investigation, and theoretical analysis as dynamic and static factors. Dynamic factors are classified as the rationality of advanced geological prediction method, reliability of data, the accuracy of data analysis, and timeliness and effectiveness of forecast information transmission. Karst cave characteristic factors are composed of cave scales, locations, and thickness of rock plate, based on collapse investigation and theoretical analysis to strengthen the character of karst. (2) A new questionnaire is designed in the consulting process to express the relative importance of factors by combining a Saaty scale method and a designed three-scale method. The judgment matrix by the new questionnaire can satisfy the consistency requirement, which is hard to satisfy in the traditional F-AHP method. (3) The dynamic risk assessment is carried out on different samples in the Lianhuashan tunnel. By comparing the dynamic assessment results with the occurrence of disasters, the rationality of the assessment is verified.

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